长期菲利普斯曲线 -米乐m6平台

　　长期菲利普斯曲线是一条位于“自然失业率”水平的垂直线，表明失业率与通货膨胀率之间不存在交替关系。一旦形成了通货膨胀预期，短期菲利普斯曲线就会上移，工人会要求足以补偿物价上涨的更高的名义工资，而雇主则不愿在这个工资水平上提供就业，最终，失业率又恢复到“自然失业率”水平。

　　垂直的长期菲利普斯曲线表明，失业率与通货膨胀率之间不存在替换关系。而且，在长期中，经济社会能够实现充分就业，经济社会的失业率将处在自然失业率的水平.因而从长期来看，政府运用扩张性政策不但不能降低失业率，还会使通货膨胀率不断上升，即经济政策在长期中无效。

　　1、菲利普斯曲线是一条描述通货膨胀与失业或经济增长之间相互关系的曲线。

　　2、菲利普斯曲线最初是反映失业率与货币之间变化关系的，失业率越低，工资增长率高，负相关。

　　3、20世纪60年代，美国经济学家萨缪尔森和索洛把菲利普斯曲线改进成为一种表示通货膨胀率和失业率之间的相互关系的图形，一般称为简单的菲利普斯曲线。通货膨胀率和失业率之间存在替代关系或负相关关系，当失业率降低时，通货膨胀率就会趋于上升，当失业率上升时，通货膨胀率就会趋于下降。政府进行决策时可以用高通货膨胀率来换取低失业率，或者用高失业率换取低通货膨胀率。如图a所示。

　　4、美国经济学家弗里德曼认为，工人和企业感兴趣的是实际工资而不是名义工资（货币工资），在劳资双方工资谈判时，工人会把通货膨胀预期考虑进去的。这就意味着，对某一个水平的失业率，可以对应多个水平的通货膨胀率。由于预期的存在和变动，通货膨胀和失业替代关系只是在短期内才是可能的，而在长期内则是不存在的。从长期看，菲利普斯曲线是一条和横轴垂直的直线。

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　　自然失业率：

　　在没有货币因素干扰下，由实际因素造成的失业。自然失业率即是一个不会造成通货膨胀的失业率，也是劳动市场处于供求稳定状态的失业率。失业辛高于自然失业率时，工资有下降压力；失业率低于自然失业率时，工资有上升压力。

　　从整个经济看来，任何时候都会有一些正在寻找工作的人，经济学家把在这种情况下的失业称为自然失业率，所以，经济学家对自然失业率的定义，有时被称作”充分就业状态下的失业率”，有时也被称作无加速通货膨胀下的失业率。

　　通货膨胀率：

　　通货膨胀率（rateofinflation）又指物价变化率，反映货币超发量占实际需求量的比重，在经济学中是指物价平均水平上升幅度，一般运用居民消费价格指数（cpi）、生产者价格指数（ppi）和折算价格指数（gnp）来反映通货膨胀的程度。